Silva

This weekend contains Superbowl Sunday, but how can anybody really care about that compared to what is happening Saturday.

The UFC is presenting UFC 183. The supporting bouts are unusually compelling, but it is all really about the main event.

Andersen Silva will be squaring off against Nick Diaz.

Silva is the former Middleweight champion, and is considered the best fighter to have fought in mixed martial arts...ever...in any weight class.

As recently as July 2013, he looked to be invincible. He was fighting a worthy contender, Chris Weidman. In the middle of the second round, Silva stood within punching range, dropped his hands to his knees, and started dodging his head around. He was daring Weidman to hit him; just fooling around. Weidman landed a bomb, and took Silva's title away with a knockout.

The consensus was that it was a fluke, and that Silva would take the belt back in the rematch, which was held the following December.

Silva came out dead serious, and oozing confidence, but so did Weidman. The end came again in the second round. Silva launched a devastating round kick, that Weidman checked with his own shin. Shinbone met shinbone at a 90 degree angle and Silva's leg snapped. By the time he hit the floor, screaming, the bottom half of his lower leg was sticking out in a direction it was never meant to take.

Two losses, but they were both weird. Was Andersen Silva done, or was he still Andersen Silva? He is 39 years old, after all.

First, he had to heal, which took a long time. Now, a little over a year after his leg snapped, he is going back into the ring.

Who is he facing? Nick Diaz is a decent fighter who has seen better days. He seems to be just legitimate enough on paper to make a respectable opponent. In reality, he's hand-picked to lose.

Diaz is significantly skilled in Jiu-Jitsu, and has turned himself into a nasty striker. He hasn't got one-punch knockout ability, and moves slowly. He also sucks at the one thing that Silva has always had trouble with; take-down ability. He is also from the next smaller weight division, and has never fought at Middleweight.

Silva is the most accomplished puncher and kicker in the world. Standing, he should be able to avoid anything Diaz tries, and should batter him with ease. Diaz is dangerous on the ground, but there is no way he should ever be able to get Andersen down. Silva is also dangerous on the ground.

If both men were at their peak, Silva would destroy Diaz. It would be a horrible mismatch. On top of that, Diaz is small. It hardly seems fair.

If Silva loses, it will be proof that his career is over. Even if he wins, but doesn't look fantastic it will also be a very bad sign.

Sadly, even a sloppy, split-decision win will probably get Silva in line for an immediate third fight with Weidman.

Even if he kicks the crap out of Diaz, and puts him away early, it is such an uneven match-up that it won't be any kind of proof that he's as good as ever.

What would I like to see happen? I'd love it if Silva still has the spark, and shows it. For me, that would mean a knockout within the first half of the first round. If he can get around Diaz's guard, like he used to with far better opponents, and ends it early then the tiny flame of hope will be lit.

Then he'd get his title shot. I bet they'd make it happen before his 40^th birthday in April. I'd love to see him win that one in any fashion whatsoever. I'd also like to see him immediately retire afterwards.

How can a football game hope to match all of that?

Looking at results

Recently, I did an analysis of our Jiu-Jitsu school's Gracie University exam results.

It was only material from one level, called BBS1, but it could be expanded later.

Shawn, our instructor, thought it was a good idea, and gave me access to the pertinent test videos and grading reports. It all went pretty fast, as we've only ever had 5 students perform the exam in question.

The goal was to find out if there were any common flaws. This could lead to improvement in instruction, and general improvement in all of our students' performance. Not only potential improved test results, but better Jiu-Jitsu in general.

So I went through all of the technical drills by the 5 students, and correlated all of the negative comments. Overlapping errors would be a strong indicator of a potential problem. Single error comments would be idiosyncratic errors of the student who received them.

It seems that we might have a few generally weak techniques amongst the 180 or so variations the exam covers.

1)-Three of us had errors on (Guard) Posture Prevention-Emergency Punch Block. I know Shawn teaches the correct movement, so perhaps something like more drill would be helpful here.

2)-There was another 3-person error on (Guard) Butterfly Guard-Strong Side Sweep regarding the over-hook arm control.

3)-In the two, highly-related sweeps in (Guard) Spider Guard there were a total of five errors. Something to catch here perhaps.

Interestingly, there were the 4 significant errors I have listed above within the Guard/Half-guard segment of the exam. All of those 4 errors occurred in the Guard chapter, and none in Half-guard.

The Mount/Side-mount segment had zero significant errors.

There was only a single significant error in the Back-mount/Leg Locks/Standing segment. It was in Leg Locks.

4)-This was a 3-person error in the last movement of (Leg Locks) Knee Locks Primary Counter-Triangle Get-up. I consider this the least significant of the group's errors. These negative comments were all received by our 3 students who took the exam early in 2012, and not repeated by the 2 students from late 2013 tests. This would indicate we longer perform this movement in the negatively-received manner.

If these results are correct, a little more attention devoted to the 3 troublesome techniques indicated could improve future BBS1 exam scores by several points.

Pretty good information garnered from a couple of hours of time invested.

60 year old

So why don't I rant and rave about class counts and months-in-rank anymore?

Simple. The die are already cast.

My instructor has said that I will receive my rank just before we leave for our upcoming wee holiday. That sets that promotion date quite nicely. When that long-awaited third stripe will arrive on my Blue Belt will, in turn set up the earliest that I can hope for the final number four.

With that all pretty well settled, the only possible question is when might a leap to Purple occur.

There is no set time or attendance to move from 4-stripe Blue to Purple, but I certainly don't want to rush it. I think we'll be doing a month or so in LA about 3 months and 60 classes after my receiving my fourth stripe. That seems tight to me.

The next possible visit would be the next fall, or maybe late winter. That would turn 3 months and 60 classes into somewhere between 13 months with 220 classes and 17 months and 275 classes. Somewhere in this range is my target date. My computer painlessly figures these things out for me.

It also says that I'll be a mere kid of 60.

With this road all paved, I've had time to wonder on other topics.

The first of these is when might I do the ugly, BBS2 exam. I am already getting asked about it. It contains 60 techniques, each with many variations. We've been going through it in class a little too fast for me to digest. Also, in the year or so that it's taken us to cover, I've been off travelling for about 1/3 of the classes.

My current level of readiness is just not there. Best do the cycle again. That should do it. We should be done that a year from this coming spring. That will be a good project for a 4-stripe Blue Belt to be working on.

I've also been wondering how good of a tutor I'm being to people preparing for their BBS1 exams. Just how well do I know that exam, and how we are doing on it?

My next blog entry will be about that, which is a whole other kettle of fish.

Than's Finger

We currently have about a dozen Blue Belts attending class.

Normally, everybody is fine.

Recently, Tawha hurt her knee while rolling. She's had to start wearing a knee brace.

Tobias has a bum knee, too, but I don't know how it happened.

My own knee has been fine, but now I've hurt my hand and watch from the sidelines.

Elizabeth hurt her shoulder and back again. She's been on the mend and feeling really fine. She is describing it as a, “setback.” She's still training, but being extra careful.

Tonight was our most dramatic recent injury. Than ended up with a finger joint pointing 45% in a way that it isn't supposed to go. He headed off to the emergency room to get it x-rayed and straightened out again.

Altogether, that's two knees, one shoulder, and two hands. That's pretty bad considering how low our injury rate usually is. It isn't as if anything we've been doing anything unusual in class. It must just be a statistical blip.

A painful blip.

Orbit

The way that I am experiencing is chock full of cycles.

My local school runs on a weekly system that runs 5 days a week. Tuesday is a White Belt combatives class, followed by a Master Cycle session for Blue Belts. Wednesday is similar, but the White Belt class is only for those approaching promotion, and is called Reflex Development. Thursday is exactly the same as Tuesday. On Friday there is no class, but the place is used for an open mat session. Saturday morning has another open mat time. It all then starts up again the next Tuesday.

I really like this. One of the few flaws with retirement is that people frequently lose track of what day it is. My week is so structured that this never happens to me.

We also experience cycles on a much larger scale. Our curriculum is divided into 7 chapters. We work our way though Mount, Sidemount, Guard, to Halfguard, then to Back Mount, Leg Locks, and finally Standing. Even within each chapter there is a structure.

When we finish the entire rotation, it's right back into the whole thing again starting with Mount. Since getting my Blue Belt a little over 2.5 years ago we've been through the cycle twice, and are about to start a third.

Our promotions run on a cyclical system, too. After receiving a Blue Belt, a student is on track for their next promotion. They have an attendance card where they accumulate classes towards the minimums needed for the next advancement.

They gather at least 100 classes of specific types. Classes of the wrong type, or in a category that has already been completed don't count. There is also a mandatory minimum of 8 months required. After all of that, they are then awarded a stripe on their belt, and the process starts over.

A weekly cycle, and a much longer cycle for promotion, and a still longer cycle through the curriculum. We are cycling all the time.

Strangely, it makes me feel grounded, rather than dizzy.

Contact

Progress in Jiu-Jitsu progresses at an even, and predictable pace.

The only irregularities are the positive contacts that individuals have with the Gracies.

For our school, the contacts that our instructor has with the big boys has an effect in several ways. Of course, he gains ideas, tips, and motivation, but also his level of promotion authorization.

Let me explain. Our instructor is authorized to do local promotions, based on Gracie criteria. He can promote up to one level beneath his own. His own promotions come from direct evaluation by the Gracies. He cannot award new belt colours, only stripes. Only the Gracies give belts.

That means that the highest he can can currently promote to would be Blue Belt 4 stripe, as he is a Purple Belt. He received that rank around June of last year.

He expects to train briefly in LA next month, at a seminar in Seattle in May, again at the summer camp, and a 4th time at instructor training in July. They will certainly promote him somewhere in there, but the question is, “how far?”

If he were an average student training in LA and had received a Purple Belt in June of 2014 he would be due for a first stripe next month, and another in October. As an instructor he is so much more than an average student.

I would assume he will receive somewhere from one to three stripes. We shall see.

For myself it doesn't matter much. I won't be looking for a local stripe promotion beyond what he can provide until very late in 2017. That's a very long way off. By then his level will be much higher, and so will his authorization to promote.

We do have folks that might just run into a roadblock. I'm sure that Scott is hoping for a Purple Belt much sooner than I am. He might run into a ceiling a year earlier than me, in late 2016. It is all theoretical, as that is about 2 years away.

Anyhow, that's instructor contact.

I am the student from around here who is the luckiest when it comes to Gracie training.

In this coming year, I have two contacts happening. I will be down in LA for a couple of weeks of training pretty soon, and will be at the Seattle seminar in May. This has nothing to do with rank, but with knowledge and motivation.

I get to train and roll with many students outside from of my usual, little circle. I also get to train on technique of every level imaginable. My brain gets really, really full.

It's truly great, and I get to go to Disneyland.

100%

I have just played around with some data relating to our Jiu-Jitsu school.

It has produced a total of 24 Blue Belt students since it started in 2009.

Of the 13 who received their rank in the years 2009 through 2011, only 2 still train regularly, and 1 other who does so irregularly.

About half of the of 10 old timers who have quit did so by choice, not circumstance.

In comparison, out of the 11 who earned their Blue Belts from 2012 until now, only 2 have stopped training. Even the 2 who quit didn't want to.

What does this all mean? It may seem pretty random, but there is actually a pattern.

Every one of the 24 Blue Belts listed enjoyed the activity enough to go through considerable training, and to have gone through a difficult process of examination to earn their Belts.

There were 13 of them from 2009 to 2011. Of these, only 15% are still training, and half of those who quit did so without any apparant significant cause.

There are 11 from 2012 to 2015. Of these 82% are still training, and both of those who stopped would far have preferred to continue on the mat.

Something changed between these two groups.

For the original group, there was absolutely no structure for progress beyond Blue Belt.

This started changing early in 2012. That's when the first Gracie University exam was released, making it possible to progress farther. It was possible, but very daunting.

Early in 2014, this was significantly overhauled, making regular process something that all students could expect. The exam process is still available, and was even expanded in 2015, but it is no longer mandatory.

The difference for these two groups is what turned a 15% retention rate into one of 82%.

Of course, we still lose people. We did lose one when her family moved to Alberta, and another to health concerns. This type of thing will continue. For example; we will be losing another in the fall as he heads off to University.

That's a fantastic retention rate for any activity. Every single Blue Belt we've produced recently is either still training, or wishes they were. I call that 100%. I seriously doubt even the HQ Gracie school in Los Angeles can make that claim.

I wonder if we can improve on 100%.