Bugs Around

 

Covid hit Canada early in 2020. At first there were only a few infections, but that started to grow. The worst day was December 20th, when the rate hit a year high of 181.01 . (All these rates are a 7-day rolling average of new confirmed infections per 1,000,000 of population, and are taken from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases )

The infection rate in 2021 went up and down in waves, with two days being tied for best at 9.64 and the absolute worst day hit 227.97 .

Early in 2022 things went absolutely nuts. The rate shot up so that by January 10th it peaked at 1093.38 . That is 4.79 times worst than the absolute highest rate since Covid hit the country. At that figure, 1% of the entire country would be freshly infected in only 10 days.

I found it very strange that many people were pushing for lessening of Covid restrictions. Logic would suggest that acting in an opposite manner would make much more sense.

The good news is that the surge started to steadily decrease almost as quickly as it had shot up. As of yesterday, February 17th, the rate had dropped to 202.99 .

That is still higher than at any time in 2020, and is close to the worst day in 2021, but is less than a quarter of what it had been just a few days before.

If this continues I will soon be loosening up a bit with my own behavior.

I have decided that a rate around 100 would work for me for a partial return to activity.

Using two different mathematical calculations, and then believing the most pessimistic, the rate should go below 100 by February 24th.

Then if things continue, the rate should go under 50 by March 2nd.

These are only mathematical models based on past events and in no way predict what people and the virus will get up to. They just suggest where the line on a graph might end up if it keeps behaving the way it recently has.

So what do I do now to avoid infection, and how might that change?

I don’t go out where people are very much at all. If I am in a grocery store, drug store, or other such venue I am always masked. I find all masks pretty much equally annoying so I wear an N95. Why not?

If I’m out on my daily run, I try to avoid getting close to other people.

I love going out to eat, but haven’t even considered doing so since the infection rate exploded.

My most important out-of-house activity is attending Jiu-Jitsu training. In normal times, this includes regular advanced classes, advanced principles sessions, beginner classes, training in the city, and training with partners. If is quite normal for me to train close to ten times a week.

Currently, everything is on hold except working with Sam. Both of us are extremely Covid cautious, and don’t train with anybody else, or even with other people around. We do this a few times per week, except when either of us might have been exposed to Covid in any way.

If the rate drops below 100 we are both ready to consider returning to the advanced principles sessions. These classes are incredibly interesting, valuable, and fun. I suspect that we would attend, but still only partner with each other during practice time and sparring.

If the rate goes below 50 perhaps we’d add more classes, or maybe other partners. We haven’t discussed this yet, and would both need to agree.

Even if a totally effective cure is developed for Covid my behavior has been forever changed. In crowded situations I’ll likely always rely on a good mask. Why wouldn’t I do that when riding on crowded transit or some similar situation? Even if there were no Covid around, there are always other lesser viruses and bacteria being coughed and sneezed about.

Repetition and Reporting

Martial Arts are all about repetition.

It is the key to mastery in every aspect of training.

You do things over and over to improve them, and to make them automatic and smooth.

There is also a lot of repetition outside of the training.

For me, one of these will be ending soon.

Rank in Gracie Jiu-Jitsu starts with a White Belt, and progresses through to a Blue Belt, then a Purple and Brown, and eventually to a Black Belt.

For each of the belt changes, there is a major exam or evaluation. These are usually very demanding and demand a lot of preparation.

There are also ranks awarded within each coloured belt level. The student starts with an unadorned cloth belt. Small stripes are awarded and added to one end of the belt. Each belt eventually receives 4 such stripes.

The rules for all of these stripe are the same regardless of the belt colour.

The student must have been training for a bare minimum of 8 months since their previous promotion, and have attended at least 100 classes. At that point it is up to the instructor to decide if the student is ready to move up. Sometimes this happens at or near the 8-month mark, but sometimes a delay can be considerable.

My own training has pretty much aways been a bit of a mish-mash. I attend appropriate classes at several schools in the course of any given year, as well as working one-on-one at non-class times.

Because of this the normal school-attendance recording system doesn’t work for me. When my 8 months are up I notify my instructor about the state of my attendance. As a Blue Belt this was usually to tell him that my tally wasn’t done.

I like moving along promptly. Missing my total for a first Purple Belt stripe was so annoying it inspired me to bump up my training on an ongoing basis.

I’ve been a Brown Belt throughout the Covid era, but it was much harder to get enough training done. I managed.

Yesterday was the 8-month point for getting a third stripe on my Brown Belt. I notified my instructor, and it’s now up to him.

I beat the 100 class requirement with a tally of 112. That isn’t a very wide buffer, and the patterns of training not typical at all. A delay in promotion might well be in the cards.

Whenever it happens I will be left with only a single stripe to earn….ever.

I don’t mind keeping track of my classes at all. Training a lot is also right up my alley. What I don’t like is having to nag my instructor about it every 8 months.

Luckily, I’m darn near done with that. Just one more time and I’ll be out of stripes forever.